What are we Good at? Assessing Probability where it Matters!

You will read again and again in popular scientific articles that we human beings are not very good at handling probability.  It has become almost an article of faith.

John Kay, respected economist and academic, writes in the Financial Times (as noted here): “We do not often, or easily, think in terms of probabilities, because there are not many situations in which this style of thinking is useful."

Really?  Is that true? More...