There's Prediction in Life that Works, Prediction in Science that Works, and then there's Prediction in the Social Sciences

Warren Kinston 29. May 2012 12:00

Prediction in science Courtesy Molito66  405489435

Prediction in science is easy, if it's a physical science.  But not too much should be expected from findings in the social sciences—so says a Professor of Philosophy. How right he is.  He was asking if social science is useful for guiding public policy.  But is that the correct question?

The question here is not whether social science is useful or not for prediction.  (Most of it is pointless or even harmful in my view.)  The issue is whether prediction is possible in relation to social life generally and public policy specifically.  Having clarified that, we can consider what assistance from academia might be required. More...


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My Investigations

Bad Choices are in the Past: The Right Course Now is Simple and Easy

Warren Kinston 24. March 2012 12:00

I just read about a new tax scheme that has had over $20m of research expenditure.  It's basically a good scheme but, frankly, the research was mostly a waste of money.  It would be simpler to see that taxation has gone wrong and wronger as an aspect of political manipulation.  We experience the effects of bad choices in the past. The misuse and abuse of the tax system has had little concern for the well-being of the country: at least any country that claims to be a democracy.  The bad choices were made because the focus was on election campaigns.  If you stop viewing taxation as an ideological issue of higher or lower taxes, you may start to see some easy solutions.

Many social issues have simple easy solutions.  Especially if the problem seems complicated and overwhelming.  The mess is so extreme because it is the effect of bad choices.  The issues then become overwhelming because of political factors. 

Exactly the same thing happens in people's lives. More...


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21st Century Enlightenment | Politics

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Warren Kinston is the creator of the THEE-Online website as an open forum for the further discovery and development of THEE. He writes this blog as an escape valve for the excitement and frustrations of the work. More info here.

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